The UAE is expected to exceed its renewable energy capacity ambitions for 2030, the International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed.
According to the IEA’s Renewables 2024 report, “MENA countries’ combined ambition is to reach 201 GW of renewable capacity by 2030”. While the main-case forecast falls 26 percent short of this ambition, not all countries will miss their announced ambitions. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Algeria are responsible for nearly 60 percent of the region’s total ambition, and although the outlook is more optimistic than last year in these markets, the IEA forecast indicated that installed capacity still falls short of their 2030 ambitions.
Growth in the region could be 60 percent (152 GW) higher than in the main case – nearing the realisation of the 2030 ambition – if countries meet three key challenges. The first is faster auction implementation. Opening tenders, selecting winners and signing PPAs often takes more than one year, so hastening the process would get more projects online sooner.
The second challenge is to improve the regulatory and policy environment for distributed solar PV by implementing reforms to allow self-consumption and introduce remuneration for excess electricity generation, the report went on to say.
While a number of countries have established legal frameworks for self-consumption and net metering, there is no public data available indicating significant deployment in the commercial and residential sectors except for the United Arab Emirates, implying that implementation remains a challenge. In addition, ensuring that electricity tariffs are cost-reflective through reforms would make renewable energy more economically attractive, especially for large industry.
“Finally, more growth,” the report went on to say, “would occur with greater industrial electrification and with the removal of barriers to new market entrants to allow for more widespread use of corporate PPAs.”
Meanwhile, Solar PV capacity in the Middle East and North Africa is expected to grow 84 GW by 2030, with more than half coming from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Overall, installed solar PV capacity in the region is expected to increase more than fourfold between 2024 and 2030, expanding its share in the power mix from 2 percent to over 8 percent.
At COP28 UAE, nearly 200 countries committed to an ambitious set of energy objectives, captured in the UAE Consensus, which aims for net-zero emissions from the global energy sector by 2050.
Key targets include tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, alongside accelerating the deployment of low-emission technologies.
“The goals set by nearly 200 countries at COP28 can be transformative for the global energy sector, putting it on a fast track towards a more secure, affordable, and sustainable future. To ensure the world doesn’t miss this huge opportunity, the focus must shift rapidly to implementation,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
“The COP28 energy goals should lay the foundation for countries’ new climate targets under the Paris Agreement—they are the North Star for what the energy sector needs to do. Further international cooperation is vital to deliver fit-for-purpose grids, sufficient energy storage, and faster electrification, which are integral to moving clean energy transitions quickly and securely.”
Driven by supportive policies and favorable economics, global renewable power additions between 2024 and 2030 are projected to exceed 5,500 gigawatts (GW), nearly three times the growth seen between 2017 and 2023, according to the IEA report.
Solar energy will play a dominant role, accounting for 80% of the new capacity, as countries increasingly turn to large-scale solar projects and rooftop installations to meet growing electricity demand.
According to the report, China is set to account for almost 60% of all renewable capacity installed worldwide between now and 2030, based on current market trends and today’s policy settings by governments. That would make China home to almost half of the world’s total renewable power capacity by the end of this decade, up from a share of a third in 2010. While China is adding the biggest volumes of renewables, India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies.
