The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has significantly raised its projections for global nuclear power capacity, forecasting an increase to as much as 950 gigawatts (GW) by 2050.
This is the IAEA’s fourth consecutive year of upward adjustments, reflecting a potential growth of 2.5 times the current capacity.
The IAEA published its updated estimates on September 16 in the report “Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050.”
The report highlights the expected contribution of small modular reactors (SMRs) in driving this increase, underscoring a growing global consensus on the need to accelerate the deployment of nuclear energy.
“Following the success of COP28 in Dubai and the inaugural Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels, the momentum behind nuclear energy continues to build,” said IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano
He noted that the new projections acknowledge nuclear power as a clean and secure energy source and highlight the rising interest in SMRs for both electrical and non-electrical applications in pursuit of climate goals.
At the opening of the 68th IAEA General Conference in Vienna, Grossi reiterated the importance of nuclear energy in the broader context of sustainable development.
As of the end of 2023, there are 413 operational nuclear reactors worldwide, collectively generating 371.5 GW. The IAEA’s high-case scenario projects nuclear capacity could rise to 950 GW by 2050, while even its low-case scenario anticipates a capacity of 514 GW—about 40% more than today.
The agency noted that SMRs could account for approximately 25% of the added capacity in the high-case projection and 6% in the low-case scenario.
Recent developments include the pouring of the first concrete for Unit 5 at the Ningde nuclear power plant in Fujian Province, China, which, along with the planned Unit 6, will each contribute 1,200 MW of capacity. This site currently has four reactors with a total capacity of 4,072 MW.
The IAEA’s estimates take into account numerous variables, including the lifespans of existing reactors, potential upgrades, planned decommissionings, and future construction projects. Approximately 30 countries without nuclear power are exploring options to integrate it into their energy mix, while others are extending the operational lifetimes of current plants.
The report notes that extending the lifespan of existing reactors is one of the most cost-effective methods for producing low-emission electricity. The agency’s high-case scenario presumes that most reactors slated for retirement will have their operating periods extended.
China is currently at the forefront of new reactor construction, with recent reports indicating government approval for 11 new reactors as part of a $31 billion investment in expanding nuclear capacity.
The recent Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels identified several supportive factors for nuclear power growth, including enhanced financing access for new projects and favorable energy market conditions. Workforce development and proactive support for countries entering the nuclear field were also emphasized.
The IAEA indicated that achieving the high-case capacity scenario will rely on government policies and investment support, alongside the need for demonstration projects to test new reactor technologies. A favorable regulatory environment and international collaboration will be crucial, particularly for SMR development.
In a further commitment to advancing this agenda, the IAEA will host an International Conference on SMRs and their Applications in Vienna from October 21-25, bringing together key stakeholders to discuss strategies for accelerating the deployment of these technologies.
